Mar 2005 Report
 

 

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1st March 2005  – 31st March 2005

Overall performance

 

Any month that ends up as a profit, in this case a humble 3%,  is a good month!   After having my worst single days trading since I started reporting my P/L, I have to say that I'm feeling pretty pleased (relieved?) to end up in the black.

As market participants will know, the source of the problem was, of course, Mr Alan Greenspan.  This man has caused me more financial losses over time than any other person on earth.   However I think this time around it would be a little unfair to blame him too excessively.   

On this occasion, the 0.25% rise in USD interest rates was well flagged by the markets.   The announcement itself was exactly as expected and what's more I don't even trade USD!   So why did the markets have a mental?  I guess it's just one of the great trading mysteries we are all confronted with at surprisingly regular intervals!

A reader of these reports emailed me the other day and said that I seem to be able to remove all emotion from my trading and just let trades be.   While I would like to think this to be true a loss of 10% in a day certainly puts me to the test.   As it happened I simply cut my exposure a little, and bravely continued on.   I cannot say that I felt immune, but I didn't tamper.  

For what it's worth, that would also be my advice to other traders out there - if you have a well tested trading system and something unexpected happens, don't stop trading or discard your methods.  Just cut your exposure until you find your mental equilibrium again.

 

Of course, making just 3% for the second month in a row continues to  pull down my daily average somewhat, but even if I can continue at this rate, it will be a good year.  I haven't completely lost hope in the 1% a day, however.   

 

Individual components

The following charts show individual equity curves in percentage terms of the various trading components traded throughout the period.    The charts are from inception of each trading system. 

  Trade Components

Still my favourite system - trading seems robust, in that it seems to recover well from drawdown

Was doing real well, until the Fed rate announcement!  How could we forecast that an expected rise in the US would cause this kind of reaction in this particular pair?  It's a mystery to me!
ditto  - I guess one of the underlying currencies completely overreacted
Hopeless all month!
Sometimes it pays to trade weird stuff!
One day this pair/method is going to break-away.  One day!

Dropped during Period

Subsequent backtesting wasn't very encouraging either, so I dropped this pair early in the month. 

 

   

 

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