June 2004 Report
 

 

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        1st June 2004  – 30th June 2004

    Overall performance

 

 

 

This has been my best month this year, up a little over 11%, which puts me nicely on target to reach the goals I set for myself at the being of the year (see January 2004 Report Jan 2004 Report).

At the end of May I amended my Support and Resistance trading to incorporate stop and reverse orders.   The idea behind this was to try to get two bites of the cherry, without increasing the maximum daily risk.   The change certainly worked to my advantage this month, and you can see evidence of equity acceleration in a number of my charts.   

Also in two out of three of my High volatility accounts (ones in which I have not included the P/L in the above consolidated chart), I now have returns of around 150% – 200%.  While these accounts are subject to savage drawdowns (and that is the reason I’ve excluded the P/L), if they continue at the rate they are going, my overall return for the year will be excellent. 

I’ll just keep trading, and not think about it too much! 

Individual components

 

The following charts again show individual equity curves in percentage terms of the various trading components traded throughout the period.    The charts are from the beginning of reporting, or inception, with this month performance commencing from the vertical line. 

 

Capital Allocation for period

 

 

Trade Components

 

 

 

 

AUD/NZD:  Some excellent returns here as mentioned in the introduction.  The first account would actually have been dramatically better had I not missed two trades by just one pip, during the last two days!  But that is trading.  Small things can make large differences, and the spread is always working against us.

 

Spread/BO AUD – NZD:  I started trading this method last month, but in my rush to get the report out (I was busy fencing the property we live on), the chart got omitted.  Basically I’m Spread trading AUD/NZD, while playing breakout’s on the underlying currencies.   

The idea kicked on well this month!

 

A mentioned in previous reports, at the moment Spread trading doesn’t seem to be working very well, but I continue to use the account for analysis. 

 

Breakout’s are working though!  The ‘Large Basket’ currently actively trades 9 out of 16 pairs I look at.  The trading makeup is reviewed weekly

 

 

The ‘Small Basket’ trades my best 3 breakout pairs, again reviewed weekly.

 

JPY BO’s:  

 Slightly disappointing for the month.  We’ll have to see how this one goes.

 

 

 

 

GBP/CHF:  I stopped trading this for a few days at the end of last month, but came back to it at the beginning of June, and hopefully I’ve turned the corner.  

As I have observed before, this pair backtests very well.  I’m hoping that my new ‘double dip’ method will pay off.  Time will tell.

 

 

The following two charts are variations on a theme, but using a more aggressive money management strategy that doesn’t suffer from problems of asymmetric leverage.  It’ll be interesting how this goes. 

 

 

        Stopped during the month

                 Trading in the following pairs was stopped during the month due to uninspiring results

 

I obviously pushed this one to hard!

GBP/USD: Once a main stay; now I don’t know what it is doing.  Consequently I now no longer trade this pair. 

Again that’s trading for you.  You have to flexible, and cannot let your ego take on the market.  You’ll just lose a great deal more.


 

Under simulation

Shown here are a few of the methods I currently have in simulation. 

As can be seen GBP/USD is still behaving very poorly - while AUD/NZD is working very well – up well over 400%!   Long-term trend following continues to be unremarkable (I really don’t know why I keep this up, as I don’t believe that trend following is half as good as the books say!), and Line in the Sand is indicating a contrary market

 

 

 

 


 

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